There is strong evidence that the frequency of extreme events is increasing. Extreme weather events like the Dust Bowl of the 1930s; Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017; and disease outbreaks, including Zika and dengue increasingly endanger lives and consume considerable resources. In addition, their unanticipated consequences can result in significant ecological and socioeconomic disruptions. These “ecological surprises” are often the product of complex multi-scale spatiotemporal interactions that can lead to alternative states of a system. Such changes are often unanticipated because the sequencing and patterns of events, their intensity, or rate and pattern of spread and recovery lack historical precedent. However, retrospective analysis of catastrophic events can offer a unique multi-scale perspective into ecosystem dynamics. The sometimes surprising consequences of non-typical environmental conditions can facilitate understanding, prediction, and management for the future.
The ecology of the dust bowl
Retrospective analyses of historic production data during the 1930’s Dust Bowl illustrate the importance of landscape features and landuse regimes that modify connectivity and result in heterogeneous responses to extreme multi-year drought (Peters et al. 2014). These contemporary analyses of historical data show that traditional drivers can be insufficient for predicting ecological responses during extreme climatic events. The perspective offered by reexamining these events is critical to better understand, predict, and manage for the future under changing climate and land use (Peters et al. in press).
Key Papers